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When will the home buying and selling market be reactivated?

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发表于 2024-2-14 19:00:26 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

If, perhaps because you intend to sell your apartment , you are aware of the latest data on the real estate market, you will know that it is not very good. And what you may be wondering, just as those of us in the sector are wondering, is when the home buying and selling market will be reactivated . Below we give you our forecast.

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How we have arrived at the falls in the home buying and selling market
To predict a trajectory you have to know its origin, which is equivalent to studying the evolution of the real estate market in recent years .

Recommended reading:   Is it better to sell a property at the end of 2023 or in 2024?
The market stoppage during the pandemic
Like most sectors, real estate suffered a slowdown during the worst phase of the pandemic. In 2019, according to the INE, some 505,400 operations occurred; in 2020, more than 420,000, and the annual variation was -16.9% . The prices of apartments for sale , as a report from the Bank of Spain says, showed “greater downward resistance.”   

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Recovery and peak in 2021 and 2022
The 2021 data was overwhelming. More than 566,000 purchases of apartments Australia Phone Number List and houses were signed, and the increase compared to 2020 was 34.8% . Data this high had not been seen since 2007, but 2022 broke the mark of its predecessor with almost 650,000 homes and an increase of 14.7% .

Rebound effect + Ukraine war = high levels of inflation
This peak of sales in 2021 and 2022 was not an isolated phenomenon, but a symptom of the problem that continues to affect us: inflation . During confinement, family savings increased greatly, and in 2021 and 2022 there was a rebound effect. Economic activity fell so much during the worst phase of the pandemic, so much did it rise in those two years.

Anyone who didn't know it before knows it well now: one of the causes of inflation is excess liquidity . The war in Ukraine, which skyrocketed energy prices, only fueled inflation levels.

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ECB rate increases and difficulties in obtaining financing
During the pandemic, to encourage economic activity, the ECB even reduced interest rates to negative values. When the aforementioned rebound effect occurred, the ECB's monetary policy was the opposite. In July 2022, the first rate increase was made, and in September 2023 the last one seems to have arrived , which has placed them at 4.5% .  




High rates will always translate into difficulties in obtaining a mortgage . And if mortgages fall, sales will inevitably fall. That is what has been happening since the second half of 2022. If we also take into account that 2022, in the global calculation, was a very good year for the real estate market, the falls in 2023 seem more dramatic than in reality. are.   


When will the home buying and selling market be activated again?
Knowing the main reasons that have led us to the current situation, it is not difficult to predict when the home buying and selling market will be reactivated . When inflation rates, interest rates and difficulties in accessing a mortgage are reduced.


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